Short-term electric load forecasting for buildings using logistic mixture vector autoregressive model with curve registration
SCIE
SCOPUS
- Title
- Short-term electric load forecasting for buildings using logistic mixture vector autoregressive model with curve registration
- Authors
- JEONG, DONG YEON; KO, YOUNG MYOUNG
- Date Issued
- 2021-01-15
- Publisher
- ELSEVIER SCI LTD
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a day-ahead electric load forecasting model for buildings where daily load curves follow a few distinctive patterns. A pattern lasts for several days before changing into another. We particularly explore the problem that the day-ahead curve mostly depends on the load pattern history and is relatively insensitive to external environments such as weather conditions. The problem considers clusters for daily curve patterns and a day-ahead electric curve forecast from previous electric load and pattern history. We propose a model called the logistic mixture vector autoregressive model (LMVAR) that combines both clustering and forecasting in a single model through the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. To improve internal clustering performance, we apply the curve registration technique to the model. We test two models (the models with/without curve registration) with electric load data sets collected from a library and a grocery store. We then compare them with existing forecasting methods such as persistence, sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (S2S LSTM), seasonal autoregressive (SAR), multiple-output support vector machine (M-SVM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a cluster-based model. The result shows that the proposed models outperform the benchmark methods.
- Keywords
- PREDICTION; ALGORITHM
- URI
- https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/104721
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116249
- ISSN
- 0306-2619
- Article Type
- Article
- Citation
- APPLIED ENERGY, vol. 282, 2021-01-15
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- There are no files associated with this item.
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