Emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation intensification: from global to continental scales

Abstract

Extreme precipitation intensification due to global warming has received significant attention; however, large uncertainties remain regarding how much it will change in the future, even under a given greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our constraining analysis provides smaller future extreme precipitation intensification with reduced uncertainties than raw/unconstrained model simulation projections from the global to continental scales and also several sub-continental areas. Historical warming trends in climate model simulations present strong positive inter-model correlations with future annual maximum daily precipitation intensification from the global to continental scales. This emergent relationship is employed for constraining analysis. The proposed emergent constraints are mostly associated with thermodynamics (atmospheric moisture changes), with limited contribution from dynamics (atmospheric circulation variations). This constraining framework has various advantages, including lower observation uncertainty, and more robust theoretical interpretation than previously suggested constraints for extreme precipitation frequency projections. CMIP6 models generally overestimate historically observed warming, which resultantly generates weaker extreme precipitation intensification following constraining analysis than unconstrained model simulation projections from the global to individual continents, and even several mid- and high-latitude sub-continental areas. Additionally, constrained projections exhibit narrower uncertainty ranges in future extreme precipitation projections. During the late 21st century (2070–2099), under the high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5, characterized by fossil fueled development and a radiative forcing of 8.5 W m